Richard Jackson, Neil Howe – The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century

This book (published 2008) examines how demographics, in the long run, shape policy and change the geopolitical reality. Providing illustrative examples of countries that once risen and fallen as the superpower of its time, the authors show that such trends occurred hand in hand with demographic changes in those countries and in countries with which they competed in gaining power.

However, what is the essence of this book is a study how demographics will affect global politics of the 21st century. In the decades before us, demographic changes, both in developed and in less developed countries, will trigger changes that will affect the immigration, GDP, employment… There will be economic and social consequences that will trigger a whole new range of security risks and problems.

Very good book. It is particularly significant because demography is not sufficiently elaborated theme in considerations of geopolitics and international politics.

gigapedia.com

George Friedman – The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

This is a brand new book, and quite interesting one. It is not that often that you’ll find a theoretician of international relations brave enough to cast predictions of global politics as radical as Friedman’s. And certainly you won’t find one that will be ready to predict an entire century.

In ”The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” George Friedman argues that the 21st century will be the American century. Although there are now signs of American decline, the truth is that, in fact, America is just at the beginning of its era.

In most rigid terms, Friedman forecasts internal unrest in China and the division of China by 2020, with Japan again creating its Asian sphere of influence. About the same time, he predicts that Russia will be in the second Cold war with the West, that will turn in a full scale war, in which USA and its east-European allies (especially Poland) along with Turkey will defeat Russia and throw her out of Europe. Friedman then argues that Turkey and Japan will, by the mid 21st century become so powerful that they will challenge US power. About 2050 we can expect the Third World war, in which America will defeat the coalition of Japan, Turkey and Germany. Afterwards there will be a period of prosperity for America, but American growing problem will be the Mexican immigration and the economic and political rise of Mexico. By the end of the 21st century it will be clear that North America will rule the world, but it will be unclear who is going to rule North America. This is in most basic words.

I have to say that I disagree with most of his predictions

Actually, I disagree with his two first predictions concerning China and Russia, and then, because of that, everything he predicts later (in a world without China and Russia) makes little sense. First I think that China will be able to continue its economic growth for quite some time. Probably not as high as it was in the last 30 years, but high non the less. And I certainly don’t believe that China will fall apart in the next 10 years. There’s one thing that, I think, Friedman made mistake about his prediction of the fall of Russia. He never considered an idea that Russia might actually use its wast nuclear arsenal to save itself from the destruction. This is strange because Friedman gave a lot of consideration to this later in the book, when he argues about the USA – Coalition (Japan, Turkey, Germany) war. He admitted in that part of the book that USA needs to be very careful while defeating Coalition, not to push it too far because Coalition might use nuclear weapons if it is in grave danger. But Friedman never considered that Russia might do the same (by the way, Russia’s national defense strategy permits usage of nuclear weapons as a mean of defense).

But it’s still a great book, and very interesting.

demonoid.com

John J. Mearsheimer, Stephen M. Walt – The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy

It all started couple of years ago when John Mearsheimer, professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, and Stephen Walt, professor of International Relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, wrote an essay, which soon became a working paper at the website of Kennedy School of Government. At the time, it was called simply ”The Israel Lobby” and it was first published in 2006. The basic claim of the essay was that huge influence of Israel lobby in America is reshaping US foreign policy, especially concerning Middle East, in the manner that is bad for American national interest.

Naturally, the statements made by Mearsheimer and Walt left no one indifferent. It caused a lot of controversy and a huge backfire of critics and opposing essays. Later, in 2007. they published a book called ”The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy”, which is much more detailed. The book has been supplemented with the chapter about the Second Lebanon War of 2006, and with the chapter in which authors suggest how America should promote its own interests in the region of Middle East. And, of course, it is also a response to the criticisms that the working paper attracted.

gigapedia.com

John Lewis Gaddis – The Cold War

John Lewis Gaddis is professor at Yale University. He is specialized in the history of Cold War, and his recently published book, ”The Cold War” (2005) is the most comprehensive literature about this period.

This is absolutely a must-have book, when it comes to Cold War problematic. A great description of bipolar world, of rigid, ideologically and militarily confronted blocks, explanations of diplomatic and military crisis during this period, problems concerning nuclear weapons, Containment theory… everything is there.

This book is very up to date, because it is published relatively recently, after the publications of great number of previously secret archives, especially Soviet archives. So, it gives it an extra value, unknown to books previously published on this topic.

scribd.com

John J. Mearsheimer – The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

John J. Mearsheimer is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. He is considered to be the most influential realist theoretician of modern international affairs. He is best known for his theory of “offensive realism“, the one that he endorses in his capital book, ”The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”, published in 2001.

Mearsheimer is skeptic about the role of International organizations, or the so-called ”International community”. He predicts that time ahead of us carries risky ”unbalanced multipolarity”, with the potential for conflict between great powers. When it comes to security issues, countries (especially great powers) are ”power maximizers”. That is, the great powers seek to maximize their share of world power because they know that is the best way to ensure their own survival. Although the best scenario is to be the global hegemon, Mearsheimer argues that this is impossible to achieve, because of the ‘’stopping power of waters” (it is difficult to project military power across oceans), so the best possible scenario for great powers is to try to achieve regional hegemony. So, throughout the book, Mearsheimer gives evidence to his theory by simply analyzing how great powers fought to achieve regional hegemony, from 1792. until the end of The Cold war.

This is truly a great book, both in terms of theory of international relations and historic analyze of great powers behavior. It is also very explicative when it comes to some key geopolitical issues. In some way, this book reminds me a lot of Paul Kennedy’s ”The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”, except Kennedy’s masterpiece goes, of course, more in historic depth (starting with the year of 1500, onwards), and is less interested in theory of realism (although it actually confirms it in many ways). I warmly recommend this great book.

Zbigniew Brzezinski – Second Chance

Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser published this book in 2007, when devastating consequences of war in Iraq were starting to look very grim for USA. This book is a great review of American foreign policy during the presidencies of three American presidents (Brzezinski calls them ”Global leaders”, with good reason), George H. W. Bush (Global leader I), Bill Clinton (Global leader II) and George W. Bush (Global leader III). It grasps the events beginning with the fall of the communism, and it examines the deep flaws of USA foreign policy during these three administrations and wasted opportunities that America had, as truly predominant super-power.

First, USA, according to Brzezinski, failed to capitalize on its Cold war victory, because it failed to transform Russia into a ”viable democracy” (obviously Brzezinski’s favorite topic). Furthermore, America missed an opportunity to stabilize the Middle East, after The First Gulf war, and, during the later years made its position in the Islamic world from bad to worse. Finally, the ongoing war in Iraq is a total disaster. America lost its allies and its legitimacy. And, what’s equally bad – its confidence.

However, this book still carries a certain dose of optimism. Brzezinski doesn’t think that it is too late, that American position in the world is irreparable. He thinks that, with more prudent policy, USA can still be number one in the future world. Brzezinski believes in a second chance for the United States, but he warns his readers that there will be no third chance.

Fareed Zakaria – The Post-American World

This book was published in May 2008, prior to the recent meltdown in the financial world. I found myself speculating about what the author would say differently if the book were written after the current flury of bailouts and the collapse of investment banks.

The book title suggests that perhaps it’s predicting the demise of America. But instead the book is generally optimistic about the future and predicts that other nations will rise in importance relative to the U.S. However, America will continue to be a global player on the international scene. While it is fashionable now to predict gloom about America’s future as an economic and political power and over emphasize the rise of China and other powers, Zakaria brings a balance through his analysis and says that there is no need to push the panic button. On the contrary, he shows the many positives about America as well as the world today.

The first sentence of the book is really crucial for understanding ”The Post-American World”: “This is not a book about the decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else“. This is somewhat a response to what a great number of ”declinists” – historians and theoreticians of international relations who emphasize America’s weakness – are saying. So, in fact, this book is a gentle warning with suggestions how America can continue to be a major player as economic and other power shifts globally in the 21st century. As the world undergoes a profound power shift, with the U.S. slipping from center stage, Zakaria discusses the implications of the “rise of the rest,” primarily India and China. America needs to abandon the idea of the world’s policeman and hyperpower and replace it with the world’s trusted third party. In this his says ”we need to be less Britain than Bismarck”.

This is an optimistic book about America and its future. There are recorded evidence that President Obama read it, during the election campaign. Maybe we will see how he understood it, in his future foreign policy.

http://gigapedia.com/items:description?id=270112

Paul M. Kennedy – The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery

This is actually a book that preceded a more famous book by Paul Kenendy (The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1987), and it was published in 1976. In The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery, Kennedy analyses the reasons for the ascent and descent of Great Britain, as the predominant naval power, from the times of the Tudors, until the late twentieth century. In that sense, it is the most profound analyses of this type since the classic work of A. T. Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660-1783, which was published far back in 1890.

Rise of the British naval power is narrowly in connection with the British economic and industrial development, and one can’t be understood without the other. Thanks to its insular character, Britain (England at first) was in much better position to project sea power, then her continental rivals, which always had to keep their continental armies more important then their navies. Thus, Britain managed to establish a somewhat magical formula – navy means colonies, colonies mean wealth. The peak of British power was about in the mid of the nineteenth century, the so-called Pax Britannica. But afterwards Britain was slowly losing power to its larger continental rivals – USA, Germany and Russia, which became more industrialized during the last years of nineteenth and at the beginning of the twentieth century.

An excellent book.

Gunther E. Rothenberg – The Napoleonic Wars

There are probably thousands of books about the Napoleonic wars, but this one is widely considered to be one of the best ever written. It captures the events of a France’s almost quarter century long struggle for European domination after the French Revolution. Under brilliant strategist Napoleon Bonaparte, and with the new concept of massive armies, which marked the beginning of the modern warfare, France almost achieved European hegemony.

Book is very detailed and there is never a dull moment. Furthermore, the book is filled with great illustrations, maps, and battle plans, which makes it all the more interesting, not only for military historians, but also for ordinary folk.

http://ifile.it/dlu42qc

Niall Ferguson – The War of the World

I started reading it these days, but it is obviosly going to last, since it is so capital

It seems like a great stuff, I like it very much so far.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=GTO95E5M